170 Bleecker

170 Bleecker St, New York, NY 10012 | 2,000 SF | $32,500/mo | Opening Cost: $100,000 | 50 seats (40 indoor + 10 outdoor) | Generated 2026-03-01

Revenue Forecast

Bear Case
$3,174,848
$1,587/SF
85% of base
Base Case
$3,768,731
$1,884/SF
Composite score: 76
Bull Case
$3,921,871
$1,961/SF
105% of base
Confidence
Medium
  • 3+ validated comps
  • No delivery heatmap data for this market
  • No second baseline location (Park Slope)
Rent Ratio
10.3%
Annual rent / base case revenue
Williamsburg $/SF
$1,966
Trailing 12-month

Scoring Factors

Demand (40%) 64 / 100
Population Density 71 (14%)
15-min walk radius: 171,876 people vs Williamsburg: 134,372 people (1.3x)
Demographic Alignment 47 (10%)
Age diff: 6yr, Income ratio: 1.8x
Delivery Match 50 (8%)
No PnT delivery orders in this zip. Pull 3P platform data (DoorDash, UberEats, Grubhub) for this market.
Transit Access 95 (5%)
20 transit stations within 500m (subway)
Co Tenancy Quality 72 (3%)
4 quality anchors, 1 downmarket signals within 400m
Financial (30%) 90 / 100
Rent Affordability 95 (20%)
Breakeven (20% occ. cost): $1,950,000, Target (10%): $3,900,000
Buildout 80 (10%)
Opening cost (incl. buildout): $100,000
Comps (20%) 68 / 100
4 comps, avg revenue $3,185,266 (ratio: 0.9x vs base)
Operational (10%) 97 / 100
Storage 90
Basement: 800 SF
Seating 100
50 seats (40 indoor + 10 outdoor)
Lease And Approval Risk 100
10-year lease, no co-op board

Financial Detail

Annual Rent
$390,000
$32,500/month
Breakeven Revenue
$1,950,000
At 20% occupancy cost
Target Revenue
$3,900,000
At 10% occupancy cost
Opening Cost (incl. Buildout)
$100,000
Total cost to open
Base vs Target
Between
Above breakeven

Demographics Comparison (15-min walk radius)

Population within 15-minute walk (~0.75 mi radius). Includes 38 census tracts. Aggregated from ACS 2022 5-Year estimates.
Target: 170 Bleecker
Baseline: Williamsburg
Target Location
Total Population 171,876
Median Age 37.1
Median Household Income $147,376
Pct Bachelors Plus 78.9
Avg Household Size 1.8
Pct Male 49.8
Pct Female 50.2
Williamsburg Baseline
Total Population 134,372
Median Age 30.9
Median Household Income $83,929
Pct Bachelors Plus 41.6
Avg Household Size 2.79
Pct Male 49.8
Pct Female 50.2
* The Williamsburg baseline walkshed includes an estimated 22,832 residents (17%) in 5 South Williamsburg census tracts with avg household size 3.5+ — a proxy for the Hasidic community, which is strictly kosher and not part of PnT's addressable market. Excluding this population, the addressable Williamsburg baseline is ~111,540 people, making the target location 1.5x the addressable baseline rather than 1.3x the raw total. Scoring uses raw Census figures and is not adjusted.

Comparable Restaurants

Name Address Est. Revenue Year $/SF Similarity Source
Nat's on Bleecker (same space) 170 Bleecker St, New York, NY 10012 $1,800,000 ~2022 $900 High Granola (Natalie Freihon meeting, Feb 2026)
Parm (Mulberry St) 248 Mulberry St, New York, NY 10012 $4,966,000 2024 $4,138 High Parm Financials (Google Drive, Corporate Development)
Sweetgreen (Bleecker + 6th) 60 W 8th St, New York, NY 10011 $3,000,758 2023 $909 Medium Notion (Sweetgreen 2023 sales data)
Sweetgreen (Nolita) 226 Bowery, New York, NY 10012 $2,776,571 2023 $1,157 Medium Notion (Sweetgreen 2023 sales data)

Competitive Landscape

Total Restaurants
89
Within 800m radius
Direct Competitors
12
Fried chicken, Southern, comfort
Avg Rating
4.32
Google reviews

Co-Tenancy Analysis

4 quality anchors, 1 downmarket signals within 400m

Quality Anchors

Warby Parker Greene St., COACH, MORTON WILLIAMS SUPERMARKETS, Chase Bank

Downmarket Signals

Village Craft Beer and Smoke II

Definitions

Bear / Base / Bull Cases
Revenue range derived from the composite score. The base case is SF-adjusted Williamsburg revenue multiplied by the adjustment band position. Bear is the low end, Bull is the high end.
$/SF (Revenue per Square Foot)
Annual revenue divided by total square footage. Shown under each Bear/Base/Bull case. Williamsburg $/SF is the baseline from actual trailing 12-month sales data.
Composite Score
Weighted average of Demand (40%), Financial (30%), Comps (20%), and Operational (10%) factor scores. Ranges from 0-100 and determines the revenue adjustment band.
Confidence
Assessment of forecast reliability based on data completeness. High requires 4+ points (comp confidence, heatmap data, second baseline). Medium requires 2-3 points. Low means less than 2 data sources available.
Rent Ratio
Annual rent divided by projected base case revenue. Industry target is under 10%; above 15% is a red flag.
Breakeven Revenue
Revenue at which rent equals 20% of total revenue (a common maximum occupancy cost threshold for restaurants).
Target Revenue
Revenue at which rent equals 10% of total revenue (the ideal occupancy cost ratio for healthy restaurant economics).
Population Density
Number of people living within a 15-minute walk (~0.75 mi) of the target location vs the Williamsburg baseline. Aggregated across multiple census tracts using ACS 2022 data. Higher population = more foot traffic potential.
Delivery Match
Measures overlap between the target location's zip code and PnT Williamsburg's existing delivery order heatmap. When no PnT delivery data exists for this market, 3P platform data (DoorDash, UberEats, Grubhub) should be pulled to populate this score.
Demographic Alignment
Compares median age and household income between the target and Williamsburg baseline. Closer matches score higher, reflecting similar customer demographics.
Transit Access
Proximity and density of transit stations within 500m. Scored by station count: 0=30, 1=60, 2=75, 3+=90, with a +5 bonus for subway stations. Based on Google Places transit_station type search.
Co-Tenancy Quality
From Rubinfeld's "Built for Growth" framework: the quality of neighboring businesses predicts customer demographics and spending power. Scores businesses within 400m. Quality anchors (+8 pts each): Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, Equinox, SoulCycle, Sweetgreen, Lululemon, Warby Parker, Apple Store, etc. Downmarket signals (-10 pts each): dollar stores, 99-cent stores, check cashing, pawn shops, payday lenders, smoke/vape shops, bail bonds. Neutral baseline is 50.
Seating
Total seat count (indoor + outdoor). Can be provided as actual counts or estimated from square footage (65% dining area / 42 SF per seat). More seats generally support higher revenue potential.
Storage
Availability and size of basement or dedicated storage space. No storage scores 0; small basement scores 70; 500+ SF basement scores 90. Critical for restaurant operations (dry goods, supplies, prep overflow).
Lease & Approval Risk
Deductions for co-op board approval required (-30 points) and short lease terms under 5 years (-20 points). Co-op boards add approval uncertainty and ongoing restrictions. Short leases limit ROI on buildout investment.
Comp Similarity
How closely a comparable restaurant matches PnT's concept. High similarity comps (Southern/comfort food, similar price point) are weighted 3x in scoring; Medium 2x; Low 1x.
Adjustment Band
The revenue multiplier range applied to SF-adjusted Williamsburg revenue based on the composite score. Score 80-100 = 100%-110%; 60-80 = 85%-100%; 40-60 = 65%-85%; 20-40 = 50%-65%; 0-20 = 35%-50%.
Opening Cost (incl. Buildout)
Total estimated cost to open, including construction, fit-out, equipment, and pre-opening expenses. Scored on magnitude: $0 (turn-key) = 95, under $100K = 95, $100K-$300K = 80, $300K-$500K = 70, $500K-$1M = 55, $1M-$1.5M = 40, over $1.5M = 25.
Corner Booth Holdings | PnT Site Revenue Forecast | Williamsburg baseline: $3,145,354 trailing 12-month revenue | Confidence: Medium