Dine-in sales at Williamsburg are down 13.5% over the most recent seven-week matched window. But the headline number masks a more specific story: traffic has held up reasonably well, while check size has been falling almost every week for a year.
Roughly 75% of the dine-in check decline is explained by a structural shift in who is walking through the door. Solo diners have gone from about 1 in 5 checks in 2023 to nearly 1 in 3 today. Two-tops, which are the biggest revenue base, have dropped from 56% of checks to 48%.
This is not a blip. It is a steady migration that started as a slow creep in late 2023 and accelerated sharply in mid-2025. Everything else, from menu mix to weather to beverage attach, is the remaining 25%.
Weekly dine-in YoY comps, January 2025 through March 2026. Green = positive, red = negative.
Matched window: Jan 19 – Mar 8, 2026 vs. Jan 20 – Mar 9, 2025. Dine-in only.
| Metric | Current | Prior Year | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $124.9K | $144.4K | -13.5% |
| Checks (traffic) | 2,250 | 2,452 | -8.2% |
| Avg check | $55.50 | $58.88 | -5.7% |
| Avg party size | 2.20 | 2.26 | -2.3% |
| Spend per guest | $25.04 | $26.64 | -6.0% |
The $19.5K sales shortfall splits roughly 60/40 in this recent window: traffic decline accounts for about 60%, lower check size for about 40%. But over the full year, the check problem has been far more persistent than the traffic problem. Check was negative nearly every week. Traffic was often positive.
| Daypart | Sales YoY | Dollar gap |
|---|---|---|
| Lunch | -15.9% | -$10.1K |
| Dinner | -14.5% | -$7.5K |
| Afternoon | -16.1% | -$3.2K |
| Breakfast | +8.2% | +$0.7K |
The same number of parties are walking in, but more of them are parties of one. About three quarters of the check decline traces to this single structural shift, and it has been building for three years.
Percentage of dine-in checks that are 1-tops, by month. January 2023 through February 2026.
Dine-in checks by party size, 7-week matched window
| Party size | Sales YoY | Traffic YoY | Check YoY | Dollar gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-tops (solo) | -16.6% | -1.2% | -15.6% | -$2.4K |
| 2-tops | -11.7% | -8.8% | -3.2% | -$8.4K |
| 3–4 tops | -14.1% | -11.2% | -3.2% | -$5.6K |
| 5+ tops | -26.5% | -22.2% | -5.5% | -$4.8K |
The biggest dollar loss is in 2-tops (-$8.4K) because that is the biggest base of business. But the worst comp rate is in 5+ parties (-26.5%), which suggests we are losing occasion and group dining disproportionately.
Secondary factors that are real but not the main story
The 7-week window was significantly colder (30.2F vs 35.1F), wetter (6.5 in vs 4.1 in), and snowier (14.2 in vs 4.9 in) than prior year. This likely pressured lunch and Sunday brunch traffic. It does not explain the party size shift, which predates this winter.
Non-alcoholic beverage attach dropped about 7 checks per 100. Soft drink attach down almost 10 per 100. This is a real check headwind but secondary to the party size composition.
Fried chicken box sales are down $6.2K and chicken biscuit down $3.5K. Tenders box launch is offsetting +$5.5K. There may be some cannibalization, but the check gap remains after adjusting for menu shifts.
3P delivery is also down 13.3% over the same window. Takeout is roughly flat (-2.1%). The softness is not unique to dine-in, but the party size problem is.
These factors collectively account for roughly 25% of the check decline. They are worth monitoring but not the lever that moves the needle.
The data tells us what happened. Now we need to understand why, and decide whether to lean into the shift or fight it.
The 75% answer raises the real question: what do we do about it?
Five-plus parties are down 26.5%. Sunday brunch and Friday dinner are the hardest-hit dayparts. A family pack offering, a Sunday dinner concept, or group-friendly promotions could directly target the lost occasion dining. This is about recapturing the higher-value checks that have disappeared. Kern + Lead could develop a "family pack" campaign around group-friendly formats: family-style platters, set menus for parties of 4+, Sunday supper specials, or a kids-eat-free night. This is testable immediately and directly targets the biggest revenue gap.
Solo share has climbed from 20% to 35% in two years, and the trend is accelerating. If this is structural, fighting it is a losing strategy. Instead, we could optimize for it: reconfigure seating to turn 1-tops faster with more bar and counter positions, build a solo-friendly menu tier designed to raise the $16 average check, and introduce a frequency program that rewards repeat solo visits. A solo diner who comes three times a week at $20 is worth more than a 2-top that comes once at $50.
Are we attracting different customers than we used to, or are the same customers coming in differently? Williamsburg's residential mix has shifted and remote work has changed weekday dining patterns. Park Slope's demographics skew toward families and couples, so if this is partly a neighborhood-driven phenomenon, Park Slope may naturally attract the larger parties Williamsburg is losing. We should watch the party size mix there from day one.