What's driving the $157K increase from the original fixed proposal to the likely projection
| Trade overruns (+$52K) | Electrical +$22K (DXD lighting plans expanded scope), Plumbing +$12K (macerator, PVC, mixing valves), Carpentry +$9K (design evolution), Painting expansion +$8K, Demo +$0.5K |
| New scope (+$24K) | Sprinkler $6.8K, Fire stopping $5K, Millwork niche $4.8K, Core drill + copper $3K, Flooring $2.9K, Painters OT $1.2K |
| Banquettes (+$20K) | Upholstery (cushions) + millwork (MEDEX bases) added after Dec 10 design change. Not in original plan. |
| Lighting (~+$30K est.) | EA#09 came in at $47K. Range $17K (linear only) to $47K (full Lutron). Assume ~$30K negotiated. |
| GC overhead delta (~+$45K) | Cost-plus GC overhead running much higher than $34K fixed proposal. See below. |
Darragh estimated $27K in GC costs for the entire project (Dec 10 meeting). Actual run rate tells a different story.
What's happening: Under cost-plus, GC charges hourly for PM ($130/hr), carpenters ($94.80/hr), and laborers ($58.75/hr) plus 15% materials markup. Invoice #03 alone had 407 labor hours in 2 weeks. At this rate, total GC overhead for the project could reach $80-100K vs the $18.6K in the fixed proposal.
On Jan 16, Darragh said: "I'm not saying we're definitely not going to be at $150,000, but we're not going to be double it either." The likely projection at $315K is exactly 2x.
Even at 2x the original proposal, OSD is tracking 30% below the rejected Cocozza bid.
The fixed proposal was $158K for a simpler plan without banquettes, sprinkler, or the lighting package. The Dec 10 design change (banquettes, collaborative build) plus cost-plus pricing made overruns inevitable.
EA#09 at $47K vs ~$17K (linear only) = $30K delta. This single decision accounts for nearly 20% of the total cost variance. Negotiate hard.
Cost-plus GC costs (~$42K per 2-week period) are the biggest budget risk. Every additional week of construction adds ~$21K in GC overhead alone. Speed is money.
Even at $315K, OSD is ~30% cheaper than the rejected $452K Cocozza bid. And Cocozza's electrical/plumbing numbers were unrealistically low.